Fireside Chat on the U.S. and Mexico Presidential Elections

Photo of Pearson Partners Spotlight Series breakfast speakers Q22024: U.S. and Mexico Presidential Elections

Keith Pearson (L) and Rodrigo Aguilar Benignos (R)

At our second-quarter Pearson Partners Spotlight Series™ breakfast on June 11, business leaders gathered for a timely and engaging fireside chat on the evolving U.S.–Mexico relationship. As both nations head into pivotal election years, our discussion explored the potential impact on trade, security and global business.

Keith Pearson, chairman and CEO of Pearson Partners International, welcomed attendees and shared insights from his recent trip to Mexico as an international election observer. The morning’s highlight was his conversation with Rodrigo Aguilar Benignos, senior advisor at APCO and U.S. Council on Foreign Relations member. Drawing on his expertise in international relations and trade, Rodrigo offered an in-depth analysis of Mexico’s recent historic election and what lies ahead for U.S.–Mexico relations.

Key Takeaways

Historic Election with Global Implications

Mexico’s June 2 election marked a historic moment as Claudia Sheinbaum was elected the nation’s first female president. With more than 20,000 posts on the ballot, the election was widely viewed as a referendum on outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) policies. Sheinbaum’s landslide victory signals a continuation of AMLO’s political agenda, though many question how independently she will govern.

U.S.–Mexico Trade: A Critical Relationship

Rodrigo highlighted the strength of the U.S.–Mexico trade partnership, which surpasses $779 billion annually—more than the combined U.S. trade with the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea and Japan. Every minute, $1.5 million in goods and services cross the border, making Mexico the U.S.’s largest trading partner. This interdependence underscores the importance of maintaining stability and collaboration between the two countries.

Security and the Challenge of Organized Crime

Reducing violence and combating organized crime remain top challenges for the new administration. Despite Sheinbaum’s success in lowering crime rates in Mexico City, scaling those efforts nationwide will be far more complex. Rodrigo emphasized that addressing cartel influence will be a key test of her leadership. While optimism remains, the task is daunting.

Nearshoring Opportunities and Infrastructure Hurdles

The fireside chat explored the growing trend of nearshoring: moving offshored U.S. manufacturing from China to Mexico. Rodrigo noted that many U.S. companies view Mexico as a reliable partner with a talented workforce, particularly in engineering and manufacturing. However, Mexico must overcome infrastructure limitations—such as energy reliability, water availability and transportation—to fully capitalize on this opportunity.

What’s Next for USMCA?

The upcoming review of the USMCA trade agreement in 2025 will be a critical milestone. Rodrigo expressed cautious optimism that the agreement will continue to provide the stability and certainty businesses need, though he also acknowledged potential risks if constitutional reforms and political shifts disrupt investor confidence.

The Fentanyl Crisis: A Shared Responsibility

The discussion addressed the fentanyl crisis, noting increased cooperation between Mexico and the United States. While Lopez Obrador’s administration handed control of Mexico’s ports to the Navy to curb fentanyl trafficking, Rodrigo believes further collaboration and enforcement will be necessary under Sheinbaum’s government.

Action Items for Business Leaders

Strengthen cross-border cooperation on security and counter-narcotics efforts, particularly in addressing the fentanyl crisis.
Monitor developments around USMCA, as the upcoming review process could impact trade and investment strategy.
Invest in talent development and infrastructure to capitalize on nearshoring opportunities in Mexico’s evolving manufacturing landscape.

Closing Reflections

As Rodrigo succinctly said, “We are at a pivotal moment in the U.S.–Mexico relationship.” With both nations undergoing significant political transitions, the conversation reinforced the critical need for engagement, understanding and partnership.

Pearson Partners extends our sincere thanks to Rodrigo Aguilar Benignos for sharing his valuable insights and to our attendees for their thoughtful questions and participation. We look forward to continuing these important conversations at our upcoming Spotlight Series™ events.

Learn more about the Pearson Partners Spotlight Series™ breakfast events.